By John Harrington

It’s crunch-time in both the Leinster and Munster Senior Hurling Championships this weekend with Round 5 set to decide which three teams from each province progress to the knock-out stages of the All-Ireland Senior Hurling Championship.

Carlow and Waterford are already out of the running after losing all four of their provincial championship matches, but every other team that’s in action this weekend has something to play for.

Both provinces are very finely balanced so we’ve broken down all the various possible permutations depending on now Saturday’s and Sunday’s matches might go.

The top two teams in each province will contest the provincial final with the third-placed team advancing to the preliminary All-Ireland SHC quarter-finals.

The third-placed team in Leinster will play the Joe McDonagh Cup champions, while the third-placed team in Munster will play the Joe McDonagh Cup runners-up.

It is worth noting that if two teams finish on equal points then they will be separated by their head to head record, whereas if three teams or more finish on equal points then they will be separated by scoring difference.

Saturday June 15

Leinster Senior Hurling Championship Round 5

Wexford v Kilkenny, Innovate Wexford Park, 7pm

Dublin v Galway, Parnell Park, 7pm

Possible permutations

1: Wexford and Dublin win: Wexford (6 points) and Dublin (5 points) contest the Leinster SHC Final. Galway also finish on five points but lose out to Dublin on the head to head rule and so progress to the All-Ireland SHC preliminary quarter-finals.

2: Kilkenny and Galway win: Galway (7 points) and Kilkenny (6 points) contest the Leinster SHC Final. Wexford (4 points) advance to the All-Ireland SHC preliminary quarter-final.

3: Wexford and Galway win: Galway (7 points) and Wexford (6 points) contest the Leinster SHC Final. Kilkenny (4 points) advance to the All-Ireland SHC preliminary quarter-final.

4: Kilkenny and Dublin win: Kilkenny (6 points) and Dublin (5 points) contest the Leinster SHC Final. Galway also finish on five points but lose out to Dublin on the head to head rule and so advance to the All-Ireland SHC preliminary quarter-final.

5: Wexford win and Galway and Dublin draw: Wexford (6 points) and Galway (6 points) contest the Leinster SHC Final. Kilkenny and Dublin both finish on four points each but Kilkenny advance to the All-Ireland SHC preliminary quarter-final on the head to head rule.

6: Kilkenny win and Galway and Dublin draw: Kilkenny (6 points) and Galway (6 points) contest the Leinster SHC Final. Wexford and Dublin would both finish on 4 points and would be separated by scoring difference as their own match earlier in the Leinster SHC finished in a draw. Currently Wexford’s scoring advantage is +15 while Dublin’s is +7. So unless Dublin make up that eight-point scoring differential on Round 5, Wexford would advance to the All-Ireland SHC preliminary quarter-final.

7: Galway win and Kilkenny and Wexford draw: Galway (7 points) and Kilkenny (5 points) would contest the Leinster SHC Final. Wexford would also finish on five points but would be ranked lower than Kilkenny in the table on scoring difference and so would advance to the All-Ireland SHC preliminary quarter-final. Kilkenny’s scoring difference is currently +18 while Wexford’s is +15 and that would be unchanged in a draw scenario.

8: Dublin win and Kilkenny and Wexford draw: All four teams would finish level on five points each and so would be separated by scoring difference. In this scenario Galway (currently +7 scoring difference would lose out as they would definitely have the worst scoring difference of all four teams. The only question then would be whether Dublin could improve their current +7 scoring average sufficiently to leapfrog Wexford’s +15 (which would remain unchanged by a draw with Kilkenny). So, unless Dublin beat Galway by eight points or more, Kilkenny and Wexford would contest the Leinster SHC Final and Dublin would advance to the All-Ireland SHC preliminary quarter-final.

9: Dublin and Galway draw & Wexford and Kilkenny draw: Galway (6 points) and Kilkenny (5 points) would contest the Leinster SHC Final. Wexford would also finish on five points but an inferior scoring difference to Kilkenny’s means they would advance to the All-Ireland SHC preliminary quarter-final.

Sunday June 16

Munster Senior Hurling Championship Round 5

Tipperary v Limerick, Semple Stadium, 2pm

Clare v Cork, Cusack Park, 2pm

Possible permutations

1: Tipperary and Clare win: Tipperary would finish on eight points while Cork, Limerick, and Clare would finish on four points each and be separated by scoring difference. Currently Limerick’s scoring difference is +31, Cork’s is +13, and Clare’s is -30. That effectively means Limerick would join Tipperary in the Munster Final and Cork would progress to the All-Ireland SHC preliminary quarter-finals.

2: Limerick and Cork win: Tipperary, Limerick, and Cork will all finish on six points each and would be separated by scoring difference. Currently Tipperary’s scoring difference is +38, Limerick’s is +31, and Cork’s is +13. So the likelihood here is a Limerick v Tipperary Munster Final unless Tipperary lose by a wide margin against Limerick this weekend and Cork defeat Clare by a wide margin, allowing Cork to make up the 25-point scoring differential on Tipperary.

3: Tipperary and Cork win: Tipperary (8 points) and Cork (6 points) would contest the Munster SHC Final while Limerick (4 points) would progress to the All-Ireland SHC preliminary quarter-finals.

4: Limerick and Clare win: Limerick (6 points) and Tipperary (6 points) would contest the Munster Final. Clare and Cork would finish on four points each but Clare would advance to the All-Ireland SHC preliminary quarter-finals on the head to head rule.

5: Tipperary and Limerick draw and Cork win: Tipperary (7 points) and Cork (6 points) contest the Munster SHC Final while Limerick (5 points) advance to the All-Ireland SHC preliminary quarter-finals.

6: Tipperary and Limerick draw and Clare win: Tipperary (7 points) and Limerick (5 points) contest the Munster SHC Final. Clare and Cork finish on four points each but Clare would advance to the All-Ireland SHC preliminary quarter-finals on the head to head rule.

7: Clare and Cork draw and Tipperary win: Tipperary (8 points) and Cork (5 points) contest the Munster SHC Final. Limerick (4 points) progress to the All-Ireland SHC preliminary quarter-finals.

8: Clare and Cork draw and Limerick win: Limerick (6 points) and Tipperary (6 points) contest the Munster SHC Final while Cork (5 points) progress to the All-Ireland SHC preliminary quarter-finals.

9: Tipperary and Limerick draw and Clare and Cork draw: Tipperary (7 points) and Cork (5 points) contest the Munster SHC Final. Limerick also finish on five points but lose out to Cork on the head to head rule and so progress to the All-Ireland SHC preliminary quarter-finals.