***Sunday August 27 ***
All-Ireland SFC semi-final
Dublin v Tyrone, Croke Park, 4pm - RTE/Sky
A serious collision seems guaranteed when Dublin’s irresistible forwards meet Tyrone’s immovable defence in Sunday’s All-Ireland SFC semi-final.
Dublin have blown away every team they’ve met so far in the Championship this summer, winning their four games to date by an average margin of 16 points.
But they haven’t come up against any defence remotely as tight or organised as a Tyrone that has conceded just one goal thus far in the Championship and just an average of 12 points per match.
And what makes this tie really fascinating is that Tyrone have proven so far this summer that they can combine a miserly defence with a free-scoring attack, having scored a total of 6-77 in their four matches, with an average winning margin of 12 points.
Dublin haven’t faced a team that combines a blanket defence with a slick, speed counter-attack as effectively as this Tyrone team does since losing to Donegal in the 2014 All-Ireland semi-final.
That day Dublin’s naivety in defence was exposed by Donegal on the break, but the lessons learned that day were put to good effect when winning the Sam Maguire Cup in 2015 and 2016.
Cian O’Sullivan’s positioning as a deep-lying sweeper in front of the Dublin full-back line has given them a safety net in defence they lacked in 2014 against Dublin, so they won’t be as vulnerable to Tyrone’s counter-attack as they were Donegal’s.
It’ll be interesting to see how Dublin line up against a Tyrone team that plays just one player, Mark Bradley, as an out and out forward.
Everyone else attacks from deep positions, so Dublin will have the option of marking them man or man and following them wherever they go, or, more likely, use someone like Jonny Cooper as a second sweeper like they did against Monaghan in the All-Ireland quarter-final.
With Tyrone defending in so many numbers and compressing the space inside their own ’45 yard line, long-range shooting could a profitable source of scores for Dublin.
Their best long-range shooter, Diarmuid Connolly, hasn’t played any football since being suspended after the Leinster SFC quarter-final against Carlow, so Jim Gavin has a big call to make there.
Expect Dublin to be very patient when trying to work the ball closer to goal for a more percentage shot at the posts.
Against Donegal they carried the ball into contact too much such was their desperation to get forward, and also kicked long into the packed Donegal defence to often, so they’re unlikely to make the same mistakes again.
Instead, expect them to play a lot of keep-ball and to move the ball over and back across the field as they probe patiently for an opening to appear.
It mightn’t make for the most thrilling of viewing from a spectator point of view, but that will be of little concern to Dublin manager Jim Gavin.
Tyrone certainly have the wherewithal to stifle Dublin, but doing that and also posting a winning total themselves at the other end of the field will be a big ask.
There’s a good chance a tight contest will be decided in the final 10 minutes when legs tire and some space opens up.
And with the firepower that Dublin are able to call on from the bench, that’s when they may take a decisive upper hand.
TYRONE: Niall Morgan; Aidan McCrory, Ronan McNamee, Cathal McCarron; Tiernan McCann, Padraig Hampsey, Peter Harte; Colm Cavanagh, Conall McCann; David Mulgrew, Niall Sludden, Kieran McGeary; Mark Bradley, Sean Cavanagh, Mattie Donnelly.
