​By John Harrington 

It’s the final regulation round of the Allianz Football League this weekend and the fate of some teams is already sealed.

Down have been relegated to Division Two, Tyrone have been promoted to Division 1, Kildare have been promoted to Division 2, Antrim and Louth have been promoted to Division 3, and Limerick have been relegated to Division 4.

The remaining six teams in Division 4 have nothing to play for other than pride, but every match in the top three Divisions can be decisive in terms of either promotion or relegation.

A myriad of different scenarios are possible depending on how the results go, and the margins could be razor-thin. 

In a scenario whereby two teams vying for promotion or battling to avoid relegation are level on points, here is how a tie-break is determined.

• The team that won the head-to-head match is ranked first

• If this game was a draw, scoring difference is used to rank the teams

• If scoring difference is identical, the total scores is used to rank the teams

• If this is still identical, a play-off is required

If three or more teams are level on points, then the head to head rule no longer applies and scoring difference is used to rank the teams.

See the League tables here

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](http://www.gaa.ie/football/national-football-league/tables)

Division 1

The only things for certain in Division 1 so far are that Down are relegated and Dublin are in the semi-finals and will top the table regardless of how Sunday’s results go.

Kerry and Roscommon are almost certain to join them in the semi-finals because they both have such healthy scoring differences.

The only scenario that would threaten their involvement would be were Roscommon to lose heavily to Dublin, Kerry to lose heavily to Cork, and Donegal to beat Monaghan by a wide margin.

That would put all four teams level on eight points each so scoring difference would be used to rank them and determine which three advance to the semi-finals.

At the moment the respective scoring difference of each team is: Kerry (+27), Roscommon (+25), Donegal (+13), and Cork (-11). So it clearly is advantage Kerry and Roscommon going into the final round of matches as far as qualification for the semi-finals is concerned.

Division 1 is so tight that the teams currently ranked from fourth to seventh in the table - Donegal, Cork, Mayo, and Monaghan – can all still qualify for the semi-finals or be relegated.

Mayo and Monaghan have four points each from seven matches played and the same scoring difference (+12), but Monaghan’s position looks more precarious.

They have a tough assignment against a Donegal team gunning to make the semi-finals, whereas Mayo should have things a little easier against already relegated Down.

Monaghan’s best chance of avoiding the drop would be for them to beat Donegal and hope that Kerry beat Cork in Tralee. That would leave Donegal, Monaghan, Mayo, and Cork all level on six points each if Mayo beat Down, but Cork would be relegated on scoring difference.

If Cork draw or win, then Monaghan would have to beat Donegal by 13 points or more in order to leap-frog their Ulster rivals.

If both Cork and Donegal win then Donegal will advance to the semi-finals because they have a much superior scoring difference. But if Cork win and Donegal lose, then they will join Dublin, Kerry, and Roscommon in the last four.

Division 2

Whoever wins between Cavan and Galway will be promoted to Division One along with Tyrone. A draw will even do Cavan, because they are a point ahead of the Tribesmen and not in danger of being caught by anyone else.

The relegation possibilities in Division Two are much more complex. The teams currently positioned from fourth to eight in the Division can all still be relegated.

Derry, in fourth, are relatively safe. It would take a 13-point defeat to Armagh in the Athletic Grounds and victories for Meath and Fermanagh to drag them into the mire.

Bottom of the table Laois are unsurprisingly in the most precarious position. They must beat Meath at home, and hope that Armagh lose to Derry to be sure of safety.

A draw for Armagh would suffice for Laois too as long as Fermanagh beat Tyrone because if both Laois and Armagh end up with five points, then Laois stay up on the head to head rule.

The same rule would go against Laois if they finish on five points with Fermanagh because they lost to the Ernesiders earlier in the campaign.

Meath need to beat Laois to stay up, but even that is no guarantee of safety. A number of different permutations could see three of four or all four of Meath, Armagh, Derry, and Fermanagh all finish on six points.

In that scenario scoring difference will decide who would join Laois in Division 3 next season. Currently the scoring difference stands thus – Derry (-1), Fermanagh (-3), Meath (-12), and Armagh (-22).

Finally, if Fermanagh lose to Tyrone, Meath beat Laois, and Armagh beat Derry, then Fermanagh will go through the trap-door with Laois.

Division 3

Kildare are promoted and Clare are currently best positioned to join them in Division 2 next year. They play Kildare on Sunday, and even if they lose and end up on six points with two or more teams, their healthy scoring difference of (+31) should see them through.

But they need to avoid a scenario where they go head to head against either Tipperary or Offaly who have already beaten them.

Limerick are already relegated and Westmeath, on five points, need to beat Longford unless they want to suffer a third relegation in as many years.

A draw might be enough for them if they finish level on six points with two or more teams because they have a healthier scoring difference (+3) currently than Offaly (-7), Sligo (-8), and Tipperary (-9).

They will also come out on top in a head to head scenario with Tipperary and Offaly, but not Sligo. Tipperary can survive a head to head with Offaly, but not Longford or Westmeath.

Offaly can survive a head to head with Longford and Sligo but not Westmeath or Tipperary. Longford can survive a head to head with Tipperary and Sligo but not Offaly.

And Sligo can survive a head to head with Westmeath, but not Longford or Offaly. 

Division 4
The final round of games in Division Four is effectively a dead rubber because Antrim and Louth are promoted already.