By Rory Kavanagh

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I was in Westport for the last year’s All Ireland Final replay. I was down on a stag do for one of my mates. We had picked Westport as a destination at the last minute imagining the craic would be mighty if the Mayo men captured Sam.

We packed into a cosy little joint called the Brewery Bar that was just about big enough to hold us. We were joined by a few locals and a group of Dubs that were down on a golfing weekend. In the end it was the Dubs who were celebrating and the poor barman had to endure a few renditions of 'The Auld Triangle’ as if losing wasn’t bad enough.

Listening to the soundbites floating around the past few weeks. People talking about Dublin going on a crusade for four or five years, they need to be split in two, they are only going to get stronger and pull further ahead of the rest; but what if Dublin don’t win on Sunday?

This week I have been trying to get my head around the possibility of an upset.

The hurt locker is just about full to capacity from previous disappointments and I’m wondering if this weekend will they finally be able to banish all the demons.

Written Off.

Before we played Dublin in the 2014 Semi Final, Jim McGuinness sensed there was a nervous atmosphere within the county. He sensed an air of apprehension from friends and family members.

We knew what the general consensus was - we had no hope.

However, within our group it had a galvanising effect. We used it as motivation to push ourselves beyond the normal thresholds time and time again at training in the lead up to the game. It energised us to an unbelievable extent and I believe it will inspire the Mayo lads on Sunday.

They will go into the game believing that they have made significant progress from last year. There is definitely something different about them.

Andy Moran and Jason Doherty are playing out of their skins. They look a lot more potent in attack this time round. Cillian O’ Connor has almost been the least effective from general play this term and that’s saying something when you consider his points haul over the last five years.

I think Jason Doherty has stepped up to the plate in a big way. Late in the Kerry replay game when Cillian O’Connor had left the field he took on free taking duties. Doherty nailed a 45 and kicked a beauty from play.

The running game is as good as there is in the country. The speed and power of Lee Keegan, Keith Higgins and Colm Boyle in particular has yielded a sizeable return of scores already this summer.

Mayo have shown adaptability in their tactical approach, none more so, than against Kerry in the semi final. The much maligned full back position seems to be much more secure this time round going into the decider.

They have stopped leaking soft goals and I’m convinced they will take Dublin down the stretch again this weekend. So they have squeezed the percentages in their favour.

In the Semi-Final replay, I fancied Kerry, I thought they would improve, but it was one way traffic from the very start.

Mayo completely destroyed the Kerry kickout, they absolutely dominated midfield. The Kerry goalkeeper, Brian Kelly, was under so much pressure he kicked one out over the endline in the first half. You don't see those things happening unless there is intense pressure from out the field.

Dublin arrive in the final in top shape. They are playing with a swagger. Con O'Callaghan, who is having one of those dream seasons, is the embodiment of this Dublin team. Young and fearless, he possesses a tremendous work ethic.

His goal against Tyrone highlights how ruthlessly Dublin will punish any mistakes that come their way.

Niall Sludden- one of Tyrone’s better performers on the day, fist passes the ball away in the Dublin half, just over ten seconds later it’s in the back of the net.

O'Callaghan receives the ball outside the 45 metre line but immediately he’s driving at the heart of the Tyrone defence.  The change of direction at speed to wrong foot the defender and then finish is incredible. It’s not something that you would expect from an Under 21.

It shows you the mentality of the lad and the confidence he’s playing with.  He , like Fenton previously, has fitted in seamlessly through the spine of the team.

O’Callaghan has picked up a couple of man of the match awards already. That dynamic has to change if you are in a Mayo shirt. They will look to target him with maybe a Lee Keegan or Chris Barrett who won’t afford him the same space.

I was very interested in Jim Gavin's comments post the Tyrone match. Straightaway he talked about not performing in last year's All Ireland Finals which I found significant. He is going to be hammering that home.

The three in a row has barely been mentioned. They are fixated on performances. Imagine the intensity at training in the A versus B games.

The likes of Diarmuid Connolly, Kevin McManamon, Paul Flynn, Michael Darragh MacAuley, Eoghan O'Gara and Bernard Brogan tearing stripes of you. That is a serious edge to have.

Dublin seem to hold the upper hand in the strength of their pack. Think back to last year’s Final replay. He could call on Cormac Costello (three points), Bernard Brogan(point) and Michael Darragh Mc Cauley’s surging runs  late in the game to drag them over the line.

If anything, that area has only been strengthened in 2017; the competition even more fierce.

I think that Dublin hold the advantage on kickouts. Stephen Cluxton is just so composed. His accuracy and precision will make it very difficult for Mayo to disrupt. Everybody in a blue shirt is a possible receiver and he demands constant movement from out the field.

As a midfielder it is a nightmare because very rarely will he give you an opportunity to get set. You are constantly scanning, looking over your shoulder and wondering where the receivers are coming from.

Mayo, however, as they have shown against Kerry have made serious improvements in pressing the opposition kickouts. The timing and choosing the correct approach will be crucial to Mayo’s success.

I feel Mayo will throw in a surprise in their team selection. Stephen Rochford has been keeping us guessing quite a bit again. I see Brendan Harrison picking up Paddy Andrews, maybe Donal Vaughan on Dean Rock with Paul Mannion being the tricky one. If Mayo want to play Keith Higgins as a sweeper, they may start with an extra defender - possibly Paddy Durcan.

At midfield, I think Dublin's mobility and point taking from Brian Fenton and James McCarthy hold a slight edge. I just think that Fenton is a brilliant player; he is athletic, big and powerful and he can take scores from distance.

McCarthy is brilliant defensively and covers the ground offering a superb link between defence and attack.

Will Diarmuid Connolly start? Will Paul Flynn start? I've a feeling Flynn might be in from the outset due to his Semi-Final display. He came on, kicked a few points and brings such experience. That would give Mayo another headache and might curtail that Keegan, Higgins, Boyle axis bombing forward.

Mayo won’t beat Dublin unless they can score a couple of goals. Points only won’t win the day for me. They have to find a way of testing Dublin’s full backs. Phily Mc Mahon has seldom been put on the back foot. Jonny Cooper either. We are used to seeing them bomb forward at will and grab a point or two. Maybe this time round Mayo’s full forward line will deliver on the big day.

Murphy and McFadden delivered for us in 2012, and if Mayo are to triumph Moran, Doherty and O’Connor need to have big games.

When we played Dublin in 2014 we targeted goals. We knew Dublin would give us chances. The goal in the first half came from a long delivery into Dublin’s full back line. The ball broke from Michael Murphy to Ryan McHugh, who finished.

In the second half, Ryan got his second by timing his run from deep and he was there to palm it in and the third arrived off a long Paul Durcan kickout when the ball was flicked onto more runners coming from deep who set up Colm Mc Fadden to finish.

Mayo have scored goals against Kerry and will know that this time they have to do it again.

The Dublin team have enjoyed good leads in all their games this season and from there they have overwhelmed the opposition. They haven’t been tested yet this year. They haven’t had that punch to the face that completely throws your game plan out the window. I think it must come.

Going against my head and for the stick that I’ve got from my brother in law, I’m going for a Mayo win against all the odds. Carpe Diem!